Wales Cancels More Than It Builds — But Still Scores Best in the British Isles for Delivery
Three major cancellations — M4 Relief Road (£1.4bn, cancelled 2019), Circuit of Wales motorsport park (£280m, 2018), and the Swansea Tidal Lagoon (£1.3bn, 2018) — represent £3bn of shelved ambition. Yet despite this pattern of strategic retreats, Wales records the lowest CPD-D (delivery) score of any nation tracked by this platform, reflecting a portfolio where active schemes, though often overbudget, do eventually get built. Wales cancels boldly; it delivers cautiously.
Programme Status Breakdown
Delay Distribution — Top Schemes (Weeks)
Announced vs. Current Cost — All Schemes (£m)
Cost Escalation Forecast to 2032 — Active Schemes
M4 Relief Road — £1.4bn Dream Shelved
Announced in 2014 to relieve the chronically congested M4 through Newport and the Brynglas tunnels. Cost estimates rose to £1.4bn before the Welsh Government cancelled it in June 2019 following a public inquiry recommendation against. Over £100m was spent on planning, design, and inquiry costs without a metre of road being built. The Newport M4 bottleneck remains unresolved.
Swansea Tidal Lagoon — World First That Wasn't
Tidal Lagoon Power Ltd proposed the world's first purpose-built tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay at £1.3bn, seeking a 90-year Contract for Difference. After the Hendry Review (2017) backed the project, the UK Government refused subsidy support in 2018, citing cost. The lagoon was abandoned, taking with it the potential for six UK tidal projects. Wales lost a potentially world-leading clean energy sector.
Velindre Cancer Centre — 8-Year Wait for Patients
Announced in 2017 to replace the ageing Cardiff facility at £197m. By 2024 the estimated cost had risen to over £260m and the completion date had slipped from 2021 to 2025 and beyond. Cancer patients in South Wales continue to be treated in a building opened in 1970. As of 2026 the new facility has no confirmed opening date. The overrun on a cancer centre is one of the most politically charged failures in Welsh NHS history.
South Wales Metro Phase 1 — £462m Overrun on Delivery
The flagship TfW transport modernisation programme was announced at £738m and completed in 2024 at approximately £1.2bn — a 63% cost overrun of £462m. Two years behind schedule. Core Valley Lines infrastructure required significantly more remediation than originally scoped. The Metro is now operational but has set a troubling benchmark for Phase 2 cost reliability.
Glangwili Hospital — £140m Overrun, Opening Delayed to 2030
The new general hospital for Carmarthen and west Wales was announced at £250m in 2018 with a 2025 target. Cost has risen to approximately £390m — a 56% increase — and the opening date has been pushed back to 2030. NHS Wales's capital programme has been severely impacted by post-pandemic construction inflation, with Glangwili representing the single largest health infrastructure overrun in Wales.
Wales — Best Delivery Score in the British Isles
Despite three major cancellations and recurring cost overruns, Wales scores CPD-D 78 — the best delivery performance rating of any nation tracked by this platform. This reflects a Senedd culture that, when committed to projects, tends to see them through. Scotland (CPD-D 68), Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland all score worse. The M4 cancellation, while politically controversial, also removed the platform's largest potential delivery failure.
| Scheme | Status | Announced | Current Est. | Variance | Delay | Detail |
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Methodology & Sources
CPD Index (0–100): Higher score = worse performance. CPD-C (Cost Performance) measures the proportion and severity of cost overruns across the portfolio. CPD-D (Delivery Performance) measures delays and cancellations relative to announced programmes. The combined CPD score is the unweighted average. A score of 0 indicates a perfect delivery record; 100 indicates complete systemic failure.
Clock: The live clock shows cumulative active cost overrun on schemes with confirmed cost increases, compounding at a blended BCIS inflation rate of 3.8% per annum. Cancelled schemes (M4 Relief Road, Circuit of Wales, Swansea Tidal Lagoon) and completed schemes are excluded from the clock base.
Cost data: Announced costs are taken from Welsh Government press releases, Programme for Government documentation, Senedd committee papers, and Transport for Wales business cases. Current estimated costs are drawn from Audit Wales reports, Welsh Government capital programme updates, and parliamentary written answers.
Delay data: Weeks of delay calculated from original target completion date versus revised target or today's date where no revised target exists.
Primary sources: Audit Wales · Welsh Government Infrastructure · Transport for Wales · Senedd Cymru · BBC Wales
Disclaimer: This tracker is an independent professional assessment prepared by QuintinQS. It is not affiliated with the Welsh Government or Senedd Cymru. All figures are drawn from publicly available sources and are correct as of the date shown. Cost projections are indicative only.
CPD — about this acronym: CPD stands for Continued Prolonged Delays — a deliberate reference to Northern Ireland's Central Procurement Directorate, rebranded as Construction, Procurement, Delivery. The name is intentional.